Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Climate Change Adaptation: Some Policy Alternatives for Nepal

As published in ADR Commercial Law Journal Nepal, July 2013

Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Climate Change Adaptation:  Some Policy Alternatives for Nepal

Ambika Prasad Adhikari, Dr. Des., AICP[1]

Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA

Introduction

Many scientists consider climate change to be the most important environmental issue of this century.  Although some controversy lingers about the extent of anthropogenic contribution to global warming, most scientists and experts agree that due to the increased greenhouse gases (GHG)[2] in the atmosphere, earth’s average temperature is gradually rising and the ensuing climate change is causing significant and mostly negative impact on the environment and human population. Various studies show that average global temperatures have already risen by 0.8 degree Celsius over the pre-industrial levels. Scientists estimate that at this rate, the average temperatures are likely to rise by at least about 2 degree Celsius by the end of the century. It is widely believed that a rise of more than 2 degree Celsius in the average global temperature can bring serious adverse impacts to the global ecosystem and human welfare [3].

The nations of the world publicly and seriously acknowledged the threat of climate change in 1992, when 165 countries signed the United Nation Convention of Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Rio de Janeiro. Subsequently, during the third Conference of the Parties (COP) of the UNFCCC in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan, the Kyoto Protocol was signed.  The Kyoto Protocol formalized greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation responsibilities for countries in concrete terms, by which most industrialized countries agreed that by 2012, their GHG emissions will be reduced by at least 5 percent below 1990 levels.

According to the UNFCCC official documents, “the Protocol entered into force on 16 February 2005 in accordance with Article 23, … after the date on which not less than 55 Parties to the UNFCCC, incorporating Parties included in Annex I which accounted in total for at least 55 % of the total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990 of the Parties included in Annex I, have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession.”[4]

Nepal signed the UNFCCC in 1992 and the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 and has ratified both.  Nepal has taken its obligations seriously, and has been a reliable partner of the international community in finding ways to combat climate change and its impacts.

At the last Conference of Parties (COP) held in Doha, Qatar in November-December 2012, the Kyoto Protocol was not scrapped, but was given a lifeline until 2020. However, Kyoto has been weakened by the withdrawal from the agreement by some key nations including Canada, Japan and Russia, thus diluting its influence. The international community has not been able to establish a firm successor to Kyoto, as they have not been able to agree on any specific targets for reducing the GHG.

Although Nepal is an extremely insignificant emitter of global carbon – releasing less than 0.01 percent of global emissions - it is burdened by a disproportionately high degree of vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change.  Nepal’s exposures include the possibilities of increased GLOF (Glacial Lake Outburst Floods) phenomenon, the melting of snow-peaked mountains, decrease in agricultural production, increase in vector-borne diseases, loss of important bio-diversity assets, and change in the hydrological cycles and the resulting precipitation effects.  Given her limited financial resources and weak institutional capacity, the changing climate will likely reduce Nepal’s gross domestic product (GDP), increase the society’s disease burden, create environmental problems and cause additional human deaths.

This paper summarizes some potential impacts of climate change for Nepal, and recommends public policy alternatives for adaptation measures to counter the effects of climate change.

GHG Emissions and Carbon Sequestration in Nepal

Several gases contribute to the accentuation of the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere.  Globally, these gases are mostly released from energy generation plants, and manufacturing, transportation, and other industrial activities as well as from land use changes and certain agricultural practices. The Kyoto Protocol regulates the emission of six major global warming gases which were listed earlier, and they are the major anthropogenic contributors to the greenhouse effect leading to climate change.

Most GHG emissions in Nepal result from the activities related to transportation, manufacturing, agriculture and land use change.  The massive deforestation that the country witnessed from the 60’s to the 90’s released a large amount of carbon into the atmosphere.  However, lately, Nepal has been able to reduce the rate of deforestation, and in fact, in some cases actually increase the area of forest cover, thanks largely to the successful and innovative community forestry program, and aggressive efforts by Nepal government to protect and conserve forested areas. According to a joint ADB and ICIMOD report, between 1996 and 2000, Nepal’s forest cover increased from 6.2 million hectares to 6.8 million hectares[5].  This replenished forest area has provided additional carbon sink for sequestering a significant amount of carbon which otherwise would have been emitted to the atmosphere.

  

Potential Impacts of Climate Change in Nepal

The impacts of climate change on the environment, infrastructure, agriculture and society manifest gradually, similar to the long-term impacts of population growth on the environment.  Further, the impacts of climate change on the environment can remain indiscernible for several years.  Their effects become cumulatively exacerbated over time.  Because of this subtle and often unnoticed effect, arresting climate change is a challenge for cash-strapped governments, which have difficulties in justifying it as a priority.  Consequently, the Nepali government is unable to formulate effective policies to control GHG emissions and to adapt to the effects of climate change.  In a poor country like Nepal, the gradual and long-term adverse impacts fail to grab urgent attention when immediate problems including security, health, education, water supply, and localized pollution are highly visible and demand immediate action. The not-so-obvious and gradual impacts of climate change, although severe in the long term, fail to compete with the everyday spectacular problems of underdevelopment.  This is ironic, as the poor countries, including Nepal, are more vulnerable and susceptible to the negative impacts of climate change compared to more developed economies, and importantly have weaker institutional and managerial capacity and lack adequate financial resources to organize effective adaptation programs.

Climate change will adversely affect several sectors in Nepal.  Nepal being a primarily agricultural society, its farmers will more immediately feel the adverse impacts on agriculture, such as, in land productivity and crop yields.  A potential change in the hydrological cycle, for example, an early or late rain fall season, changes in the irrigation pattern and water supply and the changes in pollination and fertilization seasons, and natural biological cycle, can adversely affect the routine agricultural practices that farmers have perfected over the centuries. 

Another area of concern where climate change is likely to negatively affect Nepal is public health through various processes.  Other negative impacts include more frequent flooding, change in weather patterns, and increase in the intensity and frequency of landslides and storms.

GHG Mitigating Strategies and Public Policies

Nepal’s total carbon dioxide emission is estimated to be around 3.2 million metric tons (2006)[6], which is about 0.01 percent of the global emissions.  Although the Kyoto Protocol does not require Nepal, as a developing country, to reduce its GHG emission, and Nepal’s share of the global emission of the GHG is extremely small, any emission reduction will be a good symbolic gesture to show that Nepal cares about global warming. 

Given the globally insignificant GHG emission in Nepal, its emission reduction programs will remain as mainly “feel good” policies. However, Nepal can effectively contribute towards sequestration of atmospheric carbon by drastically accelerating afforestation efforts, optimizing land use policies and improving agricultural practices.  The Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD), a UN supported program being undertaken by the Ministry of Forest in Nepal, in consort with multiple donors, is an encouraging example of reducing emissions. REDD programs work by providing incentives to local residents for the value they put in live forest that stores carbon, which would otherwise be released if the forest is cut, burnt or allowed to decay.

Overall, the most critical policy consideration for Nepal will be in the areas of mitigation, and adaptation to the adverse effects that are likely to occur as the global climate changes.

As a signatory of the Kyoto Protocol, Nepal can earn carbon credits through the clean development mechanism (CDM)[7] window, till the Protocol is in effect.  It can sell them as Certified Emission Reduction units (CER’s)[8] to the countries who cannot meet their own carbon reduction levels.  Nepal is in an excellent position to provide certified carbon credits to companies from Annex I countries, by promoting clean energy projects that reduce the baseline carbon emission.  The Verified Emission Reduction[9] units can also be sold in the global market to offset the incremental cost of enhancing the projects.  The resources saved and generated through these programs could be effectively utilized for adaptation programs. Even a post-Kyoto climate change regime is expected to include some programs by which carbon credits by poorer countries will be compensated financially by richer countries.

Since 2006, Nepal has successfully utilized carbon reduction credits through CDM mechanism by utilizing the credits created by the bio-gas support projects.  This is an excellent example of the potential financial gains Nepal can achieve while developing clean technology for domestic use. Nepal has participated in several other projects related to CDM mechanism.

Among the clean energy alternatives, Nepal has done well on micro- and mini-hydro projects, and has built considerable domestic capacity to design, build and operate such plants. Thanks to the many pioneers in the micro- and mini-hydro arena, Nepal is recognized as a potential provider of technology and training programs to the countries, where the micro- and mini-hydro development is still in its infancy. In addition, Nepal has significant potential in generating clean energy from solar and wind power. Due to the remoteness of the many villages in Nepal, stand-alone solar photovoltaic and off-grid mini and small wind power have a great potential of providing energy while avoiding carbon emissions.

Some Possible Adaptation Policies

The Kyoto Protocol proposes that all countries develop adaptation programs.  It requires[10]:

“Formulate, implement, publish and regularly update national and, where appropriate, regional programs containing measures to mitigate climate change and measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change.”

Because the GHG’s linger in the atmosphere for hundreds of years, even if the world begins to drastically reduce its carbon emission now, the atmospheric carbon concentration will continue to increase[11].  Consequently, an amplified climate change is inevitable, and adaptation measures become imperative to safeguard societies from the many negative effects.  Many locations in Nepal are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.  These areas include the high altitude settlements, downstream agricultural lands, villages immediately below glacial lakes and settlements near lakes and rivers.  To safeguard against drastic climate impacts, government and other national institutions must establish adaptation measures and develop a hierarchy of adaptation approaches.

The natural system is largely reactive to the environmental changes induced by climate change.  By contrast, human adaptation system can be anticipatory, where several policies can be formulated in advance, and with minimum or even nil net social costs (see figure II).  The so called “no regrets policies” can be incorporated into the menu of adaptive measures the government can formulate.  Such policies can include removal of subsidies in energy production and manufacturing[12], deregulating transportation and electricity markets and investing in research and technology innovation. If these policies are implemented, the net investment cost on climate-related technologies can become zero if the medical, social, and environmental benefits of the changes are accounted for.  Similarly, the “precautionary principle”[13] also recommends the adoption of certain policies even if the actual climatic impacts remain uncertain. As Nepal has poor and scant data related to climate change, policies based on precautionary principles are well suited.

Type of adaptation to climate change
	Anticipatory	Reactive
Natural Systems		·        Change in length of growing season ·        Change in ecosystem composition ·        Wetland mitigation
Human system-private	·        Purchase insurance ·        Construction of home in stilts ·        Redesign of oil rigs	·        Change in farm practices ·        Change in insurance premiums ·        Purchase air conditioning
Human system-public	·        Early warning system ·        New building codes, design standards ·        Incentives to relocation	·        Compensatory payments, subsidies ·        Enforcement of building codes ·        Beach nourishment

Fig II. Types of Adaptation to Climate Change

Source: IPCC, 2001, Presentation Graphics

Human health is likely to be adversely impacted by climate change primarily because of the increase in vector borne diseases. Adaptation policies must attempt to protect human health, eco-systems and the various economic systems in the country. 

Nepal’s fragile eco-system can suffer significant damage due to the added impacts of climate change in addition to the existing environmental stressors. Climate change can negatively affect the economic system due to loss in agricultural productivity, damage to physical infrastructure and cost of relocation for people. Public policies must include building public health capacities in a decentralized manner, creating a public awareness system to educate people of the possible epidemics, and establishing research and other activities to address such public health problems.

In Nepal, agriculture is the most important sector to be protected against the uncertainties due to climate change.  Government can consider several policy options to mitigate climatic impacts on agriculture.  Such policies can include crop insurance, changing of crop patterns, and providing irrigation facilities.  Public policy should also support furthering research on how crops can resist changes in hydrological cycle and increase in ambient temperature and temporal shift in growing season.

Nepal should also build on the age-old farming practices that the indigenous farmers have perfected over time.  The indigenous practices provide resilience and fall back mechanisms to cope with the changing weather cycle.  Many organizations and institutions in Nepal and in the South Asian region have been conducting serious research on indigenous farming practices and their benefit over a fully mechanized farming.  A hybrid system that selects the best and most suitable aspects of modern mechanized farming and the indigenous technology of farming will work best in Nepal.  More research and experiments are necessary in this field.

Conclusions

Although only an insignificant releaser of global GHG, Nepal must continue to play a responsible role in the global efforts to arrest the emission of such gases.  Nepal will benefit from the Kyoto Protocol and is likely to have beneficial opportunities even in a post-Kyoto climate regime.  It should actively participate in international programs that encourage carbon sequestration and gaining emission credits such as Kyoto’s CDM mechanism, UN-REDD and several multilateral carbon credit-for-cash programs, so that it can garner economic benefits while supporting the objectives of the protocol. The resources and opportunities thus generated can sustain several climate adaptation programs in Nepal.

Nepal must consider several useful policy options that provide the country with cost effective means of producing clean energy.  Expansion of the already strong mini- and micro-hydro power generation, and promotion of solar and wind energy will greatly help Nepal in its efforts to provide clean energy to the scattered population while abating carbon emissions. Further, it must build environmentally sound infrastructure projects.  Nepal must enhance its afforestation and reforestation programs to increase the carbon sink capacity so that it can earn additional certified carbon credits for potential sales to global bidders.

Research on indigenous farming system and integrating them to the modern agricultural practices will be useful for developing appropriate adaptation mechanism for Nepali agriculture. It is also imperative for Nepal to invest resources in education and information dissemination related to the GHG, climate change and related mitigation and adaptation techniques and programs.  As a highly vulnerable, largely mountainous, and primarily an agrarian society, Nepal must be proactive in enhancing its institutional and social capacity to deal with the gradual threat emanating from climate change.

References:

1. ADB,  ICIMOD and Government of Nepal (2006), Environmental Assessment of Nepal
2. Adger, W. N et al, 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in M.L. Parry, et al, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 717-743.
3. Agrawala S, and V. Rasamurthi, et al, (2003), Development and Climate Change in Nepal: Focus on Water Resources and Hydropower, OECD.
4. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC), 2001, Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
5. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC), 2007, Fourth Assessment Synthesis Report
6. Munasinghe, M., and R. Swart, (2005), Primer on Climate Change and Sustainable Development, Cambridge University Press.
7. Scheraga, J, and A. Grambsch, (1998), Risk, Opportunities and Adaptation to Climate Change, Climate Research, December 10, 1998
8. UNEP and WMC, (2002), Mountain Watch
9. UNFCCC (1992), United National Climate Change Framework Convention text.
10. UNFCCC (1997), Kyoto Protocol text.
11. World Bank (2010), World Development Report: Development and Climate Change.

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[1] The author is Sr. Sustainability Scientist, and Faculty Associate at Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA. Contact e-mail: Ambika.adhikari@asu.edu

[2] Greenhouse gases (GHGs): These are released because of human activity and are responsible for global warming and ultimately for climate change. The six gases listed in Annex A of the Kyoto Protocol are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N20), and, hydro fluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6).

[3] World Bank (2010), World Development Report: Development and Climate Change.

[4] UNFCCC Website, http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/status_of_ratification/items/2613.php, accessed on October 09, 2012.

[5] Environmental Assessment of Nepal, ADB, ICIMOD and Government of Nepal (2006).http://www.adb.org/media/Articles/2006/10001-Nepal-environment/

[6] Source: World Bank data on Trading Economic.  Accessed on March 25, 2011. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/nepal/co2-emissions-kt-wb-data.html

[7] Clean Development Mechanism (CDM): It is provided by Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol, and is meant to financially help developing countries towards sustainable development. CDM permits industrialized countries to finance projects in developing countries, which can receive credits for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

[8] Certified Emission Reductions (CERs): A unit of greenhouse gas emission reductions issued pursuant to the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol, and measured in metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent.

[9] Verified Emission Reductions (VERs): A unit of greenhouse gas emission reductions that has been verified by an independent auditor, but that has not yet undergone the procedures of verification, certification and issuance of CERs (in the case of the CDM) or Equivalent Reduction Units (EURs) in the case of Joint implementation) under the Kyoto Protocol.

[10] Kyoto Protocol, protocol text. Article 10 (b).

[11] The CO2 concentration in the atmosphere in November 2012 is estimated to be 392.2  parts per million by volume (ppmv) (http://co2now.org/). Many studies predict that the CO2 concentration is likely to reach 500 ppmv by as early as 2030.

[12] This is a somewhat tricky area. For several forms of clean energy, such as solar and wind, an initial governmental subsidy may be advisable, and in fact needed, to help these programs compete in the market with a view of making them self-sustaining after a short period.

[13] “The precautionary principle says that the lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as an excuse to postpone action when there is a threat of serious or irreversible damage.” UNFCC 1992