Climate Change: Some Policies for Nepal
Dr. Ambika Prasad Adhikari
Introduction
Many scientists consider climate change to be the most
important environmental problem of this century. Although some controversy lingers about the
extent of anthropogenic contribution to global warming, most experts agree that
due to the increased greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere, earth’s average
temperature is gradually rising and the ensuing climate change is causing
significant negative impact on the environment and human population. The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report 2007 states that “warming of the climate
system is unequivocal”.
Although Nepal
is an insignificant emitter of global carbon, it is burdened by a disproportionately
high degree of vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change. Nepal’s exposures include the possibilities
of increased GLOF (Glacial Lake Outburst Floods) phenomenon, the melting of
snow-peaked mountains, decrease in agricultural production, increase in vector
borne diseases, loss of important bio-diversity assets, and change in the
hydrological cycles and the resulting precipitation effects. Given her limited financial resources, and a
weak institutional capacity, the changing climate will likely reduce Nepal’s GDP , increase the society’s disease burden, and
cause additional human deaths.
Greenhouse
gases (GHG) Emissions and Carbon Sequestration in Nepal
Most GHG emissions in Nepal result
from the activities related to transportation, manufacturing and agriculture. In addition, the massive deforestation that
the country witnessed from the 60’s to the 90’s released a large amount of
carbon into the atmosphere. However,
lately, Nepal has been able to reduce the rate of deforestation, and in fact,
in some cases actually increase the area of forest cover, thanks largely to the
successful and innovative community forestry program, and aggressive efforts by
Nepal government to protect and conserve forested areas. According to a joint
ADB and ICIMOD report, between 1996 and 2000, Nepal’s forest cover increased
from 6.2 million hectares to 6.8 million hectares. This replenished forest area has provided
additional carbon sink for sequestering a significant amount of carbon which otherwise
would have been emitted to the atmosphere.
Potential
Impacts of Climate Change in Nepal
The impacts of
climate change on the environment, infrastructure, agriculture and society
manifest gradually, similar to the long-term impacts of population growth on
the environment. Further, the impacts of
climate change on the environment can remain indiscernible for several
years. They become cumulatively exacerbated
over time. Because of this subtle and
often unnoticed effect, arresting climate change is a challenge for cash
strapped governments which have difficulties in justifying it as a priority. Consequently, the Nepali government is unable
to formulate effective policies to control GHG emissions and to adapt to the
effects of climate change. The gradual
and long-term adverse impacts fail to grab urgent attention when immediate problems
including security, health, education, water supply, and localized pollution
are highly visible and demand immediate action.
This is ironic, as the poor countries are more vulnerable and
susceptible to the negative impacts of the climate change compared to more
developed economies, as the poor nations have weaker institutional and
managerial capacity and lack adequate financial resources to organize effective
adaptation programs.
Climate change
will adversely affect several sectors in Nepal.
Nepal’s farmers will more immediately feel the adverse impacts on
agriculture sector, such decreased land productivity and crop yields. A potential change in the hydrological cycle,
for example, an early or late rain fall season, changes in the irrigation pattern
and water supply and the changes in pollination and fertilization seasons, and
natural biological cycle, can adversely affect the routine agricultural
practices that farmers have perfected over the centuries.
Another area of
concern where climate change is likely to negatively affect Nepal is public health
through various processes. Other
negative impacts include more frequent flooding, change in weather patterns, and
increase in the intensity and frequency of landslides and storms.
GHG Mitigating
Strategies and Public Policies
Nepal’s total annual
carbon dioxide emission is estimated to be around 40 million metric tons (World
Bank 2006), which is about 0.1 percent of the global emissions. Given the globally insignificant GHG emission
in Nepal, its emission reduction programs will remain as mainly “feel good”
policies. However, Nepal can effectively contribute towards sequestration of
atmospheric carbon by drastically accelerating afforestation efforts, and by
optimizing land use policies and improving agricultural practices. The
Reducing Emissions from
Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) a UN supported program
being undertaken by the Ministry of Forest in Nepal, in consort with multiple
donors, is an encouraging example of reducing emissions. REDD programs
works by providing incentives to local residents for the value they put in live
forest that stores carbon, which would otherwise be released if the forest is
cut, burnt or allowed to decay.
As a signatory
of the Kyoto Protocol, Nepal can earn Carbon credits through the CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) window, as Kyoto
remains in after being extended in Durban in 2011. It can sell them as Certified Emission
Reductions (CER’s) to the rich countries which cannot meet their own carbon
reduction levels. The resources
generated through these programs could be effectively utilized for adaptation
programs. For example, since 2006, Nepal has successfully utilized CDM carbon
reduction credits through bio-gas support projects. This is an excellent example of the potential
financial gains Nepal can achieve while developing clean domestic technology.
Some Possible Adaptation
Policies
Because the
GHG’s linger in the atmosphere for hundreds of years, the atmospheric carbon
concentration will continue to increase even if the world immediately begins to
drastically reduce its carbon emission.
Consequently, an amplified climate change is inevitable, and adaptation
measures become imperative to safeguard societies from the many negative
effects. Many locations in Nepal are
particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. These areas include the high altitude
settlements, downstream agricultural lands, villages immediately below glacial
lakes and settlements near lakes and rivers.
To safeguard against drastic climate impacts, government and other
institutions must establish adaptation measures and develop a hierarchy of
adaptation approaches.
The so called
“no regrets policies” can be incorporated into the menu of adaptive measures
the governments can formulate. Such
policies can include adopting cleaner technologies and investing in research
and technology innovation. If these policies are implemented, the net
investment cost on climate related technologies can become zero if the medical,
social, and environmental benefits of the changes are accounted for. Similarly, the “precautionary principle” also
recommends the adoption of certain policies even if the actual climatic impacts
remain uncertain. As Nepal has poor and scant data related to climate change,
policies based on precautionary principles are particularly well suited.
Nepal’s fragile
eco-system can suffer significant damage due to the added impacts of climate
change in addition to the existing environmental stressors. Climate change can
negatively affect the economic system due to loss in agricultural productivity,
damage to physical infrastructure and cost of relocation for people. Governmental
policies must include building public health capacities in a decentralized
manner, creating a public awareness system to educate people of the possible
epidemics, and establishing research and other activities to address such
public health problems.
Nepal can
consider several policy options to mitigate climatic impacts on
agriculture. Such policies can include creating
crop insurance, changing of crop planting patterns, and providing irrigation facilities. Public policy should also support furthering
research on how crops can resist changes in hydrological cycle and increase in
ambient temperature and temporal shift in growing season.
Nepal should
also build on the age-old farming practices that the indigenous farmers have
perfected over time. The indigenous
practices provide resilience and fall-back mechanisms to cope with the changing
weather cycle. Research on indigenous
farming system and integrating them to the modern agricultural practices will
be useful for developing appropriate adaptation mechanism for Nepali
agriculture. A hybrid system that
selects the best and most suitable aspects of modern mechanized farming and the
indigenous technology of farming may work best in Nepal.
It is also imperative
for Nepal to invest resources in education and information dissemination
related to the greenhouse gases, climate change and related mitigation and
adaptation techniques and programs. As a
highly vulnerable, largely mountainous, and primarily an agrarian society,
Nepal must be proactive in enhancing its institutional and social capacity to
deal with the gradual threat emanating from climate change.
--
The author is
an urban and regional planner and a Faculty Associate at Arizona State
University, USA.
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