Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Climate Change
Adaptation: Some Policy Alternatives for Nepal
Ambika Prasad
Adhikari, Dr. Des., AICP[1]
Arizona State
University, Tempe, Arizona, USA
Introduction
Many scientists
consider climate change to be the most important environmental issue of this
century. Although some controversy lingers about the extent of
anthropogenic contribution to global warming, most scientists and experts agree
that due to the increased greenhouse gases (GHG)[2]
in the atmosphere, earth’s average temperature is gradually rising and the
ensuing climate change is causing significant and mostly negative impact on the
environment and human population. Various studies show that average global
temperatures have already risen by 0.8 degree Celsius over the pre-industrial
levels. Scientists estimate that at this rate, the average temperatures are
likely to rise by at least about 2 degree Celsius by the end of the century. It
is widely believed that a rise of more than 2 degree Celsius in the average
global temperature can bring serious adverse impacts to the global ecosystem
and human welfare [3].
The
nations of the world publicly and seriously acknowledged the threat of climate
change in 1992, when 165 countries signed the United Nation Convention of
Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Rio de Janeiro. Subsequently, during the third
Conference of the Parties (COP) of the UNFCCC in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan, the
Kyoto Protocol was signed. The Kyoto Protocol formalized greenhouse gas (GHG)
mitigation responsibilities for countries in concrete terms, by which most
industrialized countries agreed that by 2012, their GHG emissions will be
reduced by at least 5 percent below 1990 levels.
According to the
UNFCCC official documents, “the Protocol entered into force on 16 February 2005
in accordance with Article 23, … after the date on which not less than 55
Parties to the UNFCCC, incorporating Parties included in Annex I which
accounted in total for at least 55 % of the total carbon dioxide emissions for
1990 of the Parties included in Annex I, have deposited their instruments of
ratification, acceptance, approval or accession.”[4]
Nepal
signed the UNFCCC in 1992 and the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 and has ratified
both. Nepal has taken its obligations seriously, and has been a reliable
partner of the international community in finding ways to combat climate change
and its impacts.
At
the last Conference of Parties (COP) held in Doha, Qatar in November-December
2012, the Kyoto Protocol was not scrapped, but was given a lifeline until 2020.
However, Kyoto has been weakened by the withdrawal from the agreement by some
key nations including Canada, Japan and Russia, thus diluting its influence.
The international community has not been able to establish a firm successor to
Kyoto, as they have not been able to agree on any specific targets for reducing
the GHG.
Although
Nepal is an extremely insignificant emitter of global carbon – releasing less
than 0.01 percent of global emissions - it is burdened by a disproportionately
high degree of vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change.
Nepal’s exposures include the possibilities of increased GLOF (Glacial Lake
Outburst Floods) phenomenon, the melting of snow-peaked mountains, decrease in
agricultural production, increase in vector-borne diseases, loss of important
bio-diversity assets, and change in the hydrological cycles and the resulting
precipitation effects. Given her limited financial resources and weak
institutional capacity, the changing climate will likely reduce Nepal’s gross
domestic product (GDP), increase the society’s disease burden, create
environmental problems and cause additional human deaths.
This paper summarizes
some potential impacts of climate change for Nepal, and recommends public
policy alternatives for adaptation measures to counter the effects of climate
change.
GHG
Emissions and Carbon Sequestration in Nepal
Several
gases contribute to the accentuation of the greenhouse effect in the
atmosphere. Globally, these gases are mostly released from energy
generation plants, and manufacturing, transportation, and other industrial
activities as well as from land use changes and certain agricultural
practices. The Kyoto Protocol regulates the emission of six major global
warming gases which were listed earlier, and they are the major anthropogenic
contributors to the greenhouse effect leading to climate change.
Most GHG emissions in
Nepal result from the activities related to transportation, manufacturing,
agriculture and land use change. The massive deforestation that the
country witnessed from the 60’s to the 90’s released a large amount of carbon
into the atmosphere. However, lately, Nepal has been able to reduce the
rate of deforestation, and in fact, in some cases actually increase the area of
forest cover, thanks largely to the successful and innovative community
forestry program, and aggressive efforts by Nepal government to protect and
conserve forested areas. According to a joint ADB and ICIMOD report, between
1996 and 2000, Nepal’s forest cover increased from 6.2 million hectares to 6.8
million hectares[5].
This replenished forest area has provided additional carbon sink for
sequestering a significant amount of carbon which otherwise would have been
emitted to the atmosphere.
Potential
Impacts of Climate Change in Nepal
The
impacts of climate change on the environment, infrastructure, agriculture and
society manifest gradually, similar to the long-term impacts of population
growth on the environment. Further, the impacts of climate change on the
environment can remain indiscernible for several years. Their effects
become cumulatively exacerbated over time. Because of this subtle and
often unnoticed effect, arresting climate change is a challenge for cash-strapped
governments, which have difficulties in justifying it as a priority.
Consequently, the Nepali government is unable to formulate effective policies
to control GHG emissions and to adapt to the effects of climate change.
In a poor country like Nepal, the gradual and long-term adverse impacts fail to
grab urgent attention when immediate problems including security, health,
education, water supply, and localized pollution are highly visible and demand
immediate action. The not-so-obvious and gradual impacts of climate change,
although severe in the long term, fail to compete with the everyday spectacular
problems of underdevelopment. This is ironic, as the poor countries,
including Nepal, are more vulnerable and susceptible to the negative impacts of
climate change compared to more developed economies, and importantly have
weaker institutional and managerial capacity and lack adequate financial
resources to organize effective adaptation programs.
Climate
change will adversely affect several sectors in Nepal. Nepal being a
primarily agricultural society, its farmers will more immediately feel the
adverse impacts on agriculture, such as, in land productivity and crop
yields. A potential change in the hydrological cycle, for example, an
early or late rain fall season, changes in the irrigation pattern and water
supply and the changes in pollination and fertilization seasons, and natural
biological cycle, can adversely affect the routine agricultural practices that
farmers have perfected over the centuries.
Another
area of concern where climate change is likely to negatively affect Nepal is
public health through various processes. Other negative impacts include
more frequent flooding, change in weather patterns, and increase in the
intensity and frequency of landslides and storms.
GHG
Mitigating Strategies and Public Policies
Nepal’s
total carbon dioxide emission is estimated to be around 3.2 million metric tons
(2006)[6],
which is about 0.01 percent of the global emissions. Although the Kyoto Protocol
does not require Nepal, as a developing country, to reduce its GHG emission,
and Nepal’s share of the global emission of the GHG is extremely small, any
emission reduction will be a good symbolic gesture to show that Nepal cares
about global warming.
Given
the globally insignificant GHG emission in Nepal, its emission reduction
programs will remain as mainly “feel good” policies. However, Nepal can
effectively contribute towards sequestration of atmospheric carbon by
drastically accelerating afforestation efforts, optimizing land use policies
and improving agricultural practices. The Reducing
Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD), a UN
supported program being
undertaken by the Ministry of Forest in Nepal, in consort with multiple donors,
is an encouraging example of reducing emissions. REDD programs work by providing incentives to local residents for the
value they put in live forest that stores carbon, which would otherwise be
released if the forest is cut, burnt or allowed to decay.
Overall,
the most critical policy consideration for Nepal will be in the areas of
mitigation, and adaptation to the adverse effects that are likely to occur as
the global climate changes.
As
a signatory of the Kyoto Protocol, Nepal can earn carbon credits through the clean
development mechanism (CDM)[7]
window, till the Protocol is in effect. It can sell them as Certified
Emission Reduction units (CER’s)[8]
to the countries who cannot meet their own carbon reduction levels. Nepal
is in an excellent position to provide certified carbon credits to companies
from Annex I countries, by promoting clean energy projects that reduce the
baseline carbon emission. The Verified Emission Reduction[9]
units can also be sold in the global market to offset the incremental cost of
enhancing the projects. The resources saved and generated through these
programs could be effectively utilized for adaptation programs. Even a
post-Kyoto climate change regime is expected to include some programs by which
carbon credits by poorer countries will be compensated financially by richer
countries.
Since
2006, Nepal has successfully utilized carbon reduction credits through CDM
mechanism by utilizing the credits created by the bio-gas support
projects. This is an excellent example of the potential financial gains
Nepal can achieve while developing clean technology for domestic use. Nepal has
participated in several other projects related to CDM mechanism.
Among
the clean energy alternatives, Nepal has done well on micro- and mini-hydro
projects, and has built considerable domestic capacity to design, build and
operate such plants. Thanks to the many pioneers in the micro- and mini-hydro
arena, Nepal is recognized as a potential provider of technology and training
programs to the countries, where the micro- and mini-hydro development is still
in its infancy. In addition, Nepal has significant potential in generating
clean energy from solar and wind power. Due to the remoteness of the many
villages in Nepal, stand-alone solar photovoltaic and off-grid mini and small
wind power have a great potential of providing energy while avoiding carbon
emissions.
Some
Possible Adaptation Policies
The
Kyoto Protocol proposes that all countries develop adaptation programs.
It requires[10]:
“Formulate, implement, publish and regularly update national
and, where appropriate, regional programs containing measures to mitigate
climate change and measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate
change.”
Because
the GHG’s linger in the atmosphere for hundreds of years, even if the world
begins to drastically reduce its carbon emission now, the atmospheric carbon
concentration will continue to increase[11].
Consequently, an amplified climate change is inevitable, and adaptation
measures become imperative to safeguard societies from the many negative
effects. Many locations in Nepal are particularly vulnerable to the
effects of climate change. These areas include the high altitude
settlements, downstream agricultural lands, villages immediately below glacial
lakes and settlements near lakes and rivers. To safeguard against drastic
climate impacts, government and other national institutions must establish
adaptation measures and develop a hierarchy of adaptation approaches.
The
natural system is largely reactive to the environmental changes induced by
climate change. By contrast, human adaptation system can be anticipatory,
where several policies can be formulated in advance, and with minimum or even
nil net social costs (see figure II). The so called “no regrets policies”
can be incorporated into the menu of adaptive measures the government can
formulate. Such policies can include removal of subsidies in energy
production and manufacturing[12],
deregulating transportation and electricity markets and investing in research
and technology innovation. If these policies are implemented, the net
investment cost on climate-related technologies can become zero if the medical,
social, and environmental benefits of the changes are accounted for.
Similarly, the “precautionary principle”[13]
also recommends the adoption of certain policies even if the actual climatic
impacts remain uncertain. As Nepal has poor and scant data related to climate
change, policies based on precautionary principles are well suited.
Type of adaptation to climate change
|
|
Anticipatory
|
Reactive
|
Natural
Systems
|
|
· Change in length of growing season
· Change in ecosystem composition
· Wetland mitigation
|
Human
system-private
|
·
Purchase
insurance
·
Construction
of home in stilts
·
Redesign of
oil rigs
|
· Change in farm practices
· Change in insurance premiums
· Purchase air conditioning
|
Human
system-public
|
·
Early
warning system
·
New building
codes, design standards
·
Incentives
to relocation
|
· Compensatory payments, subsidies
· Enforcement of building codes
· Beach nourishment
|
Fig II. Types of Adaptation to
Climate Change
Source: IPCC, 2001, Presentation
Graphics
Human
health is likely to be adversely impacted by climate change primarily because
of the increase in vector borne diseases. Adaptation policies must attempt to
protect human health, eco-systems and the various economic systems in the
country.
Nepal’s
fragile eco-system can suffer significant damage due to the added impacts of
climate change in addition to the existing environmental stressors. Climate
change can negatively affect the economic system due to loss in agricultural
productivity, damage to physical infrastructure and cost of relocation for
people. Public policies must include building public health capacities in a
decentralized manner, creating a public awareness system to educate people of
the possible epidemics, and establishing research and other activities to
address such public health problems.
In
Nepal, agriculture is the most important sector to be protected against the
uncertainties due to climate change. Government can consider several
policy options to mitigate climatic impacts on agriculture. Such policies
can include crop insurance, changing of crop patterns, and providing irrigation
facilities. Public policy should also support furthering research on how
crops can resist changes in hydrological cycle and increase in ambient
temperature and temporal shift in growing season.
Nepal
should also build on the age-old farming practices that the indigenous farmers
have perfected over time. The indigenous practices provide resilience and
fall back mechanisms to cope with the changing weather cycle. Many
organizations and institutions in Nepal and in the South Asian region have been
conducting serious research on indigenous farming practices and their benefit
over a fully mechanized farming. A hybrid system that selects the best
and most suitable aspects of modern mechanized farming and the indigenous
technology of farming will work best in Nepal. More research and
experiments are necessary in this field.
Conclusions
Although
only an insignificant releaser of global GHG, Nepal must continue to play a
responsible role in the global efforts to arrest the emission of such gases.
Nepal will benefit from the Kyoto Protocol and is likely to have beneficial
opportunities even in a post-Kyoto climate regime. It should actively
participate in international programs that encourage carbon sequestration and
gaining emission credits such as Kyoto’s CDM mechanism, UN-REDD and several
multilateral carbon credit-for-cash programs, so that it can garner economic
benefits while supporting the objectives of the protocol. The resources and
opportunities thus generated can sustain several climate adaptation programs in
Nepal.
Nepal
must consider several useful policy options that provide the country with cost
effective means of producing clean energy. Expansion of the already
strong mini- and micro-hydro power generation, and promotion of solar and wind
energy will greatly help Nepal in its efforts to provide clean energy to the
scattered population while abating carbon emissions. Further, it must build
environmentally sound infrastructure projects. Nepal must enhance its
afforestation and reforestation programs to increase the carbon sink capacity
so that it can earn additional certified carbon credits for potential sales to
global bidders.
Research
on indigenous farming system and integrating them to the modern agricultural
practices will be useful for developing appropriate adaptation mechanism for
Nepali agriculture. It is also imperative for Nepal to invest resources in
education and information dissemination related to the GHG, climate change and
related mitigation and adaptation techniques and programs. As a highly
vulnerable, largely mountainous, and primarily an agrarian society, Nepal must
be proactive in enhancing its institutional and social capacity to deal with
the gradual threat emanating from climate change.
